Platts Eclipse market view - UK power long term

UK Power - Beyond the short term…

Platts Eclipse market view 2018-2040 Platts Eclipse long-term UK power service forecasts power prices and fuel spreads up to 2040, with a clear view of inputs and a scenario-based approach taking into account policy, regulatory and investment risk to our core assumptions.

Review a range of forecast price scenarios, reflecting demand growth projections, fuel price developments and policy risk, both on a UK and European level. Analyze our base case view of UK wholesale power prices to 2040 and our underlying fundamental assumptions.

This service delivers:

  • In-depth analysis and price forecasts for the UK power market for the period 2018-2040
  • Forecast outputs
  • Monthly Baseload wholesale energy price
  • Monthly Baseload Clean Spark and Dark Spreads
  • Annual Capacity Market auction price (and projected new build/closures by fuel type)
  • A range of price scenarios modelled to address the most significant risks to our base case
  • Fully transparent view of fundamental drivers and their impact on our price forecast
  • Analysis of upcoming regulatory changes and their likely impact on the UK Power market
  • Two full reports per year (with associated data files) and two updates reflecting the impact of the latest fuel/carbon price developments on our power price forecast

Deep dive analysis includes:

  • Impact of battery storage growth on power demand and pricing
  • Key risks of Brexit to UK power market fundamentals
  • Implications of the government’s 2025 coal phase out plan
  • What do 2030/2050 UK and EU renewable and carbon targets mean for long term policy framework?
  • Price Forecast Scenarios:
  • Power price forecast using market coal and gas prices
  • Low nuclear new build
  • Surplus Margin stress tests
  • Power price scenarios using National Grid and UK government fuel price projections

The service complements our long-term gas service (The Platts Eclipse NBP forecast is an input to our base case) and our short-term UK power service (which uses the same stack model forecasting approach).

Analysis of key issues - Insight into the key policy uncertainties affecting Platts Eclipse assumptions.
Forecasts - absolute prices and power/fuel spreads to 2040, with base case and scenarios.
Fundamentals - An examination of the key supply, demand and fuel price assumptions feeding into our base case forecasts.


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